DAVENPORT, Iowa — As Iowa emerges as one of the most critical states in the midterm election in both House and Senate races, Fox News Digital spoke with local Republican candidates about what the media is getting right and wrong on the ground in the Hawkeye State.
As local conservatives gathered at a Scott County Republican Party event near downtown Davenport in early October to watch the first gubernatorial debate, a month out from the consequential midterm election, Fox News Digital was there asking if the media narrative was accurate that Iowa was primed for a "blue wave" amid concerns about President Donald Trump’s economy, gas prices, and the war in Iran.
Greg Guy, running as a Republican for treasurer in Scott County, acknowledged that Iowans are "concerned" about the price of gas, but believes they understand that the surge in cost is likely temporary after the war in Iran winds down.
"Surprisingly not," Guy said when asked if he thinks a blue wave is imminent in Iowa based on the reactions he gets when he knocks on doors in the county telling voters about his campaign, which he says is focused on doing "what’s right" and "taking care" of the community.
DEMOCRATS THINK A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING. HERE ARE 3 FORCES THAT COULD STOP IT
"My neighbor is one of the big people in charge of the canvassing for the Democrat Party. I don't see where they're excited to vote," Guy said. "I mean, if I talk to a hundred doors and 30 to 40% will open up, I might get one out of 40. That's a hater, and then I'll just tell them, hey, I know you're not going to vote for me, but when I'm treasurer, and you have a problem, you can still call me. They don't know what to do because they're wound up in the hate. But otherwise, I don't think there's a whole lot of belief that the Democrat Party can do anything to fix our economy."
Davenport, a town of about 100,000 people in southeast Iowa along the banks of the Mississippi River, stands out as a Democratic-leaning urban pocket in an increasingly Republican Iowa. President Trump carried Scott County by roughly four points in 2024, 51% to 47%, but former Vice President Kamala Harris won Davenport’s congressional district precincts overall, reflecting the city’s more competitive and complex political profile.
Trump won Iowa by about 13 points in 2024, and Republicans control the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature. But Scott County’s mix of urban Democrats, suburban swing voters and conservative rural communities makes it a key test of whether the GOP’s statewide strength can overcome Democratic resilience in eastern Iowa.
One of the critical questions is whether conservative Iowans are frustrated enough with Republicans to vote Democrats back into power.
"No, not at all," Cynthia Mensendick, a registered nurse running for election to the Iowa State Senate to represent District 49, said when asked if voters think handing Democrats control of Congress is the "right answer."
"The concern is that there will be a Democrat governor because if you look at any state where a Democrat takes over, they immediately increase spending," Mensendick said, adding, "I’m not seeing that," when asked if a "blue wave" was set to occur in Iowa this November.
Mensendick, who is running a campaign focused on healthcare and the high cancer rate in Iowa, says one of the top concerns with Republican voters is Iowa turning into Illinois if Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is elected.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: THE BIGGEST SURPRISES COME AFTER OCTOBER
Republicans are facing an uphill battle in Iowa, where polling shows Democrats have gained momentum in the gubernatorial, Senate and congressional races. Additionally, Republicans are going up against historical headwinds as the party in power heading into the midterms.
However, Iowa has shifted more red in recent years, and the Republicans in the room in Scott County remained optimistic.
Dillon Fillion, the youngest candidate in Scott County history at 22 years old, told Fox News Digital that Republicans in Iowa and nationwide have a choice between two very different parties at the end of the day.
"I think people have got to weigh the options here, they either have an option of voting for socialist candidates like Abdul El-Sayed, who is a pronounced communist and supports all the things that Lenin supports, which led the Soviet Union into the downfall that it went to, or they have the support of supporting Republicans who were actually serious about cutting their taxes, which cut their taxes in 2025 with the One Big Beautiful Bill," Fillion, running for the Iowa House of Representatives in District 81, said.
"And Democrats will continue to lie about that, but again, the Democrats also voted to raise their taxes 60% in 2025, voting against the Big Beautiful Bill."
Kurt Whalen isn’t running for office, but rather serves as the Scott County Iowa GOP Vice Chair, and he told Fox News Digital that while there are many frustrations with the state of affairs from Republicans in the state, he doesn’t think GOP voters will sit on the sidelines with so much at stake.
"I think people are still fired up for the Republican cause. I mean, we are a big tent party. There's people that absolutely love Trump, there’s people that don’t care for him. But the reality is, Trump's been an overwhelming force for good in our country," Whalen said.
"So, we can haggle about specifics, but I really think the Republican Party will ultimately come home and certainly support the president, and I would certainly encourage them to do that because what other choice do we have? I mean, the other choice is straight up, communist, Marxist, DSA, mask mandates. The Democratic Party in general, if you look at it historically, it has always been for big government against the little guy."