It was only a couple of weeks ago, at the Republican Party’s midterm convention, that President Donald Trump made a dramatic promise: If Republicans retain control of Congress in November, he will deliver a $5,000 check to every American adult. Yet even though 99.99% of people could use an extra five grand, GOP candidates aren’t talking about it in their speeches, putting it in their TV ads or recording social media videos about it.
In fact, Trump himself seems to have realized that the idea went over like a lead balloon. And even as he continues to search for a last-minute gimmick to reverse Republicans’ midterm fortunes, reality may be setting in, even in the Oval Office.
The latest idea Trump expressed interest in was a temporary ban on diesel exports. That proposal, pushed primarily by Republicans in the Midwest, at least has the benefit of identifying a genuine problem. Diesel prices are at their highest point in history — averaging more than $6.50 per gallon — and the increased fuel costs affect prices for just about everything Americans buy.
One poll finds only 13% of voters believe Trump genuinely intends to send Americans $5,000 each.
The problem is that a diesel export ban might not bring prices down, and would cause more problems, like deepening the global energy crisis. A coalition of major business groups, including Big Oil, urged Trump not to go ahead with it, and the idea got pushback even in Trump’s administration, most notably from Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
So now it’s uncertain whether the diesel export ban will go forward. Add it to the list of Trump’s election-season gimmicks that either backfired (like importing more beef from abroad in an attempt to lower prices at the grocery store, which enraged farm state Republicans) or were simply shoved to the back burner (like the $5,000 checks).
There are two reasons why none of this is working. First, enough voters have finally realized the emptiness of Trump’s promises. After all, in 2024 he stood in front of a table full of groceries and said, “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day 1,” and promised that in his first year in office, “I will cut the price of energy and electricity in half.” No surprise then that two years on, one poll finds only 13% of voters believe Trump genuinely intends to send Americans $5,000 each.
Second, it’s hard to overstate just how disgusted the American electorate is with the president right now. Not only are his overall approval ratings in the 30s, but in some polls, a majority of voters say they strongly disapprove of his performance. In the latest Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll, for instance, 50% of respondents strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, while only 15% strongly approve. Even the MAGA base is apparently struggling to retain its enthusiasm.
There is one thing Trump could do between now and November that would surely have a positive effect on Americans’ lives, and maybe relieve some of the pressure on GOP candidates: End the war.
To find a modern president who was disliked as intensely as Trump is now for any length of time, you have to look to Richard Nixon during Watergate or George W. Bush amidst the financial crash of 2008.
Furthermore, there wasn’t some external event that produced the current malaise; it was Trump’s own policies and decisions. His “big, beautiful” bill cut taxes for the wealthy and kicked millions off their health insurance, while premiums continue to rise. His deranged tariffs and trade wars failed on their own terms and were rejected by the public. He touts pet projects like a triumphal arch that will not help anyone in their day-to-day life. His continued cheerleading for the tech industry, particularly data centers, is unpopular across the political spectrum. And most of all, there’s his deeply unpopular war with Iran, which drags on as it pushes gas prices up.
It all creates an atmosphere where voters are so angry with Trump that no new gimmick is likely to change their vote, whether they think the gimmick itself is a good idea or not.
There is one thing Trump could do between now and November that would surely have a positive effect on Americans’ lives, and maybe relieve some of the pressure on GOP candidates: End the war. But Trump won’t do it. Instead, he claims that the Iranian regime will capitulate as soon as the midterms are over — and if you believe that, you might as well start spending your $5,000 Republican victory dividend now. But even Trump knows the die is probably cast — and he has no one to blame but himself.
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