Three months ago, Troy Jackson’s hopes of political success seemed dashed, as the former state senator finished third in the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary. But then came a reversal of fortune so rapid that, if it were a script, Hollywood would reject it as too fanciful. After Graham Platner’s sudden fall, Jackson became the party’s standard-bearer for the U.S. Senate, facing the difficult task of beating Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Now a new poll has provided a reality check. The latest New York Times/Siena survey shows Collins ahead (though within the margin of error), 49%-46%. With control of the Senate in the balance, the poll set off alarm bells among Democrats hoping the upper chamber will be a check on President Donald Trump. But the president’s opponents shouldn’t panic. Other surveys, including two released the same day, show Jackson leading or tied. And regardless of what the polls say on any given day, any race involving Collins was always going to be a true toss-up right till the end.
Collins’ attacks have come fast and furious, and her side has a considerable cash advantage.
In each of her five previous Senate races, Collins has won with ticket-splitting voters who like and respect her. Six years ago, as Joe Biden was beating Trump 53%-44%, Collins prevailed over Democrat Sara Gideon, 51%-42%.
The Times survey shows a similar dynamic: Trump’s approval rating is just 32%, and 55% of the respondents want Democrats to control the Senate. Yet Collins is leading.
Collins’ campaigns include four elements: relentlessly attacking her opponents; responding to criticism with outrage and protestations about its unfairness; insisting that she’s bipartisan and centrist; and touting federal money she has secured for small-bore projects in the state.
The first point is especially important this year. Since Jackson became the nominee late in the campaign, there’s been a race to define him.
His campaign had to jump-start his effort. Jackson stressed his biography as a fifth-generation logger, union activist and working-class person. However, he’s done little to talk about his accomplishments in the Maine legislature, including as president of the state Senate. That may have hurt him, as the Times/Siena poll found that 54% of respondents saw Collins as the candidate more likely to be an effective leader, while only 43% said the same for Jackson.
The core of Collins’ case for herself, though, focuses on how she’s helped Maine in small, concrete ways.
Collins’ attacks have come fast and furious, and her side has a considerable cash advantage. Much of the spending comes from super PACs including one funded by Elon Musk and another run by long-time ally Scott Reed, who has ties to Collins’ husband. Voters see angry-looking pictures of Jackson, with the message “Troy Jackson: Just another dirty politician.” The ads’ underlying claims of mortgage fraud, improper travel reimbursements and influence peddling by his son, a lobbyist, don’t stand up to scrutiny. But they may be sticking, thanks to relentless repetition and little pushback from the Jackson campaign.
The Democrat instead has focused on dislodging the image many voters have of Collins as competent and bipartisan. Voters are hearing commercials telling them — repeatedly — that Collins “voted with Trump 96% of the time.” There’s some evidence that this is working: The Jackson campaign emphasizes that Collins contributed to big healthcare funding cuts, for example, and in the Times/Siena poll slightly more voters (49%-46%) see Jackson as more effective on healthcare.
Collins’ centrist credentials took a hit when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, especially when Kavanaugh and three other justices Collins backed voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Jackson ads feature older women who talk about how they voted for Collins before but can’t again. That’s an important swing demographic he needs to win.
The core of Collins’ case for herself, though, focuses on how she’s helped Maine in small, concrete ways. Observers outside the state may not hear this part of Collins’ argument much, but she reinforces it to Maine voters with countless photo ops and ads. As the Times/Siena poll shows, that remains a strength of her pitch: 59% see her as better at “bringing money and resources to Maine,” while only 35% say that of Jackson.
Collins has asked the Trump administration to tap the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to stem price hikes, but it’s unclear how much that would help.
Jackson, however, points out that the cuts Collins backed outweigh the funds she brought in. He also talks about how many Mainers are hurting because of tariffs and the Iran war — simultaneously rebutting Collins and tying her to the unpopular Trump.
Maine is a sprawling state, so people have to drive a lot and need to fill up their vehicles often. Another war-related cost could become more relevant in the coming weeks: To counter the long, cold winter, Maine people are highly reliant on home heating oil, which shockingly is costing 81% more than it did a year ago. Collins has even asked the Trump administration to tap the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to stem price hikes, but it’s unclear how much that would help.
In another development that could shape the race’s final weeks, a new ProPublica report with copious documentation alleged a pay-to-play corruption scheme involving Collins, her staff and a defense contractor. Collins and her office denied the allegations, but the story has gotten widespread coverage in the state. Jackson called it “corruption of the highest order,” and his campaign is using the story as further evidence tying Collins to Trump, even suggesting that Collins has voted with Trump because the president is protecting her.
Finally, Jackson has a grassroots energy Collins lacks. He is out in Maine, doing town halls and even contra dancing with voters. He’s also holding events with other Democratic candidates. He has mobilized thousands of volunteers who are talking to Mainers. In contrast, the Collins campaign leans on ads and a Potemkin village-esque bus tour that carts people with campaign shirts and signs to locations unannounced to the broader public, where they pile out and cheer her.
While the president is widely disliked in Maine and Mainers want Democrats in charge of the Senate, the race is still likely to stay close and competitive. Collins has a big lead in money and a well-developed image and strategy. Defeating a longtime incumbent can be tough, and that’s long been true with Susan Collins. Early voting begins in Maine on Oct. 5, but this race will hang in the balance right through Election Day.
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