The House returns to session Monday two weeks after a hasty retreat from Washington. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., sent his members home early ahead of the Fourth of July weekend when a revolt from his caucus’ right flank left the chamber paralyzed. Time hasn’t changed the situation since then — and time is what Johnson lacks now.
Chances aren’t looking good for either of the two broad clusters of action items on the House GOP’s agenda.
Lawmakers are in town for eight working days before their annual August recess. When they return in early September, it will likely be too late for anything ambitious to make its way through the legislative process. Most of Congress’ focus will be on simply keeping the lights on, not cramming a grab bag of conservative priorities into yet another GOP-only spending bill. But that is exactly what Johnson keeps insisting is in the works, even as every sign and portent says otherwise.
Chances aren’t looking good for either of the two broad clusters of action items on the House GOP’s agenda.
The first group includes the annual spending bills, which fund the federal government, and the National Defense Authorization Act, which sets policy for the Pentagon and instructions for its many projects. Before the most recent break, Johnson hoped to at least move forward on the NDAA and an initial package of appropriation bills for fiscal 2027, which begins Oct. 1.
Those plans were derailed by a group of hard-line Republicans who voted down the procedural rule that would move those bills to the floor. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., said she would refuse to vote for any procedural rule until the Senate passes the vote-suppressing SAVE America Act or it gets added into the NDAA. Luna’s blockade was joined by a cadre of conservatives angry that Johnson didn’t hold a vote on an immigration bill they say he promised he would hold before the July 4 recess.
Failure to get the ball rolling, especially on the spending bills, will come back to haunt Republicans later. All the bills will eventually require at least some Democratic support in the Senate to overcome the filibuster’s 60-vote threshold. Without progress over the next two weeks, the odds skyrocket of a funding lapse looming over Congress in September. A continuing resolution to prevent a shutdown should be a cakewalk ahead of the midterms — but with this GOP majority, never say never.
The second bucket of GOP priorities includes everything else Johnson would like to see passed before the midterms. At the top of that list is the partisan budget bill he’s been pushing, aka “Reconciliation 3.0.” The bill would, in theory, wrap up several GOP priorities that would crash into a Democratic-led filibuster in the Senate. Those priorities include $70 billion to $80 billion in extra funding for the Pentagon to cover its expenses from the Iran war. Johnson has pledged to add on a version of the SAVE America Act as well, though a less sweeping iteration than the legislation Trump has endorsed.
Failure to get the ball rolling, especially on the spending bills, will come back to haunt Republicans later
This final reconciliation bill would also potentially have even more tax breaks and budget cuts after last year’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill. Those are the kinds of things some Republicans would love taking back to their constituents ahead of the midterms. But the GOP has had a tough time selling even the most popular parts of last year’s bill to the public.
None of the issues that blocked the House floor two weeks ago had been resolved as of Friday, leaving Johnson’s options unclear. Politico reported Friday that he may try to buy off Luna with a stand-alone vote on a bill to end daylight saving time. While keeping clocks from rolling back is also a priority of Trump’s, putting the Sunshine Protection Act forward eats into what little floor time Republicans have, and it’s unlikely to entice any non-Floridian holdouts to drop their concerns.
Meanwhile, there have been rumblings among Republican lawmakers for weeks that a third reconciliation bill isn’t going to happen. It was hard enough passing the last two. Last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill and this year’s immigration enforcement funding each took weeks to hammer out in the House and Senate and in the chambers’ respective caucuses. The thought of trying to get 218 votes in the House without alienating one or two Republicans on such a high-stakes bill should be harrowing.
Senate Republicans have also made clear that they don’t see the stars aligning for a third reconciliation bill, but Johnson has insisted he’ll move forward anyway. Punchbowl News suggested last month that stubbornness might be at play: “Johnson seems to be driven by people doubting his ability to pass bills.”
Based on what we’re seeing, those days of doubting Johnson’s legislative skills are certainly approaching their middle. If Republicans have any intention on proving to voters that they should keep their majorities, they’ve got eight days to do it. Otherwise, they’ll go into November unable to answer the most basic of voters’ questions: “What have you done for me lately?”
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