When U.S. negotiators arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday for talks to end the war with Iran, they will be led by a new face: JD Vance. The vice president was reportedly Iran’s preferred negotiating partner, but his elevation looks less like a boon to his standing as a diplomatic force in the administration and more like a poisoned chalice.
In the nearly six weeks after the United States and Israel first attacked Iran, Vance has sought to balance his fealty to President Donald Trump with his image as a skeptic of interventions. At times, the appeals to both sides have been almost comical: The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan recently reported, for example, that Vance “thought a regime-change war with Iran would be a disaster” — but “when it seemed certain that the president was set on a large-scale campaign, Mr. Vance argued that he should do so with overwhelming force, in the hope of achieving his objectives quickly.”
Others in the executive branch have not been fooled — at least not entirely.
“Realistically, Vance has lost clout within the White House because of his dissent,” one White House official told MS NOW’s Jake Traylor.
The vice president also lacks experienced diplomats in his corner.
That development has threatened his standing as the GOP’s 2028 front-runner: Skepticism of foreign interventions may be a key feature of Vance’s political identity, but most Republicans have supported the war with Iran. More importantly, if the last 10 years have shown us anything about MAGA voters, it’s that whatever Trump says, they follow. If Trump decides Vance has failed him, his chances of being the party’s next nominee will vanish.
This sensitive negotiation will by far be the most important role of Vance’s tenure as vice president, which until now has been spent mostly as an attack dog with a dash of “fraud czar.” He is not the first vice president to have drawn a difficult assignment: When former President Joe Biden asked former Vice President Kamala Harris to address the “root causes” of immigration from Central America, little came of the role other than Republicans blaming her for anything immigration-related.
But this negotiation would be a tricky task for even the most seasoned of diplomats. A day after Trump said the two sides had agreed on “almost all” of a 10-point plan, the White House said the same list was “unacceptable and completely discarded.” Among other disagreements, the two sides have differed on whether the ceasefire included Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, with Vance insisting, “The Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t.”
While the White House told MS NOW’s Julia Jester that the U.S. delegation will include State Department experts, the vice president also lacks experienced diplomats in his corner. Vance’s co-negotiators, White House Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are neither trusted by the Iranians nor technically competent to conduct negotiations over nuclear enrichment.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has less leverage than it did before the conflict began. Now in control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s authoritarian government has more confidence in its position than before the conflict began. Trump’s attempted “madman” gambits have hit a dead end; while the U.S. can threaten military action if talks break down, everyone knows the political will for war does not exist.
And the vice president has to contend with Trump’s ever-shifting goals for the deal.
All these factors, and more besides, have hampered the chances of a deal. But while Trump loves to declare victory out of nothing, Vance is facing intense pressure to secure something other than the status quo.
The U.S.’ allies in Israel and the Gulf (not to mention the oil industry) want the strait open and free of tolls. So too do voters putting gas in their cars in the U.S. and elsewhere. And the vice president has to contend with Trump’s ever-shifting goals for the deal: Between Wednesday and Thursday, for instance, the president suggested the tolls in the strait could be a “joint venture” between the U.S. and Iran; a day later, he said Iran “better not be [charging fees] and, if they are, they better stop now!”
Perhaps Vance safely navigates these obstacles, secures a deal that saves face for the U.S. and continues his rise in the GOP. Or perhaps the ceasefire falls apart, the strait remains shut and Trump throws his vice president under the bus. At least in that case, Vance would have Mike Pence for company.
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