“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” President Donald Trump posted on social media Friday morning. “IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD???”
It was another day, another ludicrous Trump post — but one that could portend serious consequences for his disastrous war on Iran. It’s unlikely that Trump actually wants the consequences that would come with trying to take control of the strait, and it certainly wouldn’t be easy.
During his primetime address about the war Wednesday night, Trump signaled that he was willing to let Iran maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz and let the other countries sort out the mess he made. Trump said “we don’t need” the oil that passes through the strait, and he called on other countries to “go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves.” He added, “When this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally.”
Any serious attempt to reopen the strait by force would almost certainly prolong the war.
But on Friday, Trump appeared to be floating the idea that with more time, the U.S. could seize the strait — and profit from it. (He posted later in the day, “KEEP THE OIL, ANYONE?”) That post echoed his intermittent yearning for a Venezuela-style solution to the conflict with Iran, in which he siphons off resources from a country he’s successfully brought to heel.
But in its response to U.S. military power, Iran has proved to be nothing like Venezuela. The war has already exceeded Trump’s initial longer range estimate of five weeks, and any serious attempt to reopen the strait by force would almost certainly prolong the war by more than the “two to three” additional weeks he predicted on Wednesday.
We cannot rule out the possibility that Trump’s fantasy of a “gusher” is in part an attempt to manipulate global oil prices: to keep them lower by signaling that the strait could be opened sooner rather than later and buy himself some time for continued bombardment. But let’s walk through the predicament he’s in if he wishes to open the Strait of Hormuz at this stage in the war. If he were to do it by force, then it could take many weeks, months or even years, and likely require ground troops, according to military experts.
“Iran has a lot of ways of targeting ships through the strait, whether those are commercial or military — it’s got cruise missiles, it’s got speed boats, it’s got drones — and the passageway for ships is very, very close to the shore,” Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me over the phone on Friday. “The shore is ragged and mountainous. I think in practice, the United States would have to invade part of Iran to try to control that territory and make sure the Iranians aren’t firing things out from there.”
If Trump wants to get out of this conflict quickly and without incurring additional costs, then it would seem that trying to secure the Strait of Hormuz would be a step in the opposite direction.
“Trump does not have an escalatory pathway out of this war. He can try it, but it will come at a massive cost of human life — American soldiers,” Trita Parsi, the executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told me over the phone on Friday. “So far, he’s trying to avoid that, because he knows very well that if he has a lot of American soldiers coming home in coffins, then even his own base will turn against this war in a manner that they so far have not.”
Higher casualties could in turn spur further escalation, as Trump would then likely perceive a higher bar for exiting Iran in a manner that he could sell as a “win” that would be worth the lives lost.
Another way Trump could reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be through a diplomatic deal with Iran, which would minimize costs for both sides. But it’s unclear how any such deal could happen soon. Air power alone has not made Iran more pliant — only more recalcitrant. And U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly assessed that Iran is unwilling to participate in substantial negotiations with the U.S. because it does not trust the Trump administration, which has bombed Iran twice right in the middle of past negotiations.
“The Iranians, for their part, have to decide not only whether they trust the United States, but whether they feel the pain that they’ve inflicted so far has been enough to deter attacks on Iran in the future from the United States and Israel,” Wertheim said.
In other words, Trump doesn’t have a lot of control over the situation. There are no quick solutions beyond unilateral cessation of his military operation — which comes with its own geopolitical and domestic political costs. Parsi is one of a number of experts who thinks Iran could start charging tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on a permanent basis, while keeping U.S. ships out altogether. That would give it geopolitical leverage it didn’t have before the war.
One wonders how much of the situation Trump grasps. He not only has a limited attention span, but he has also surrounded himself with yes-men who insulate him from reality. Time Magazine, citing two White House sources, reports that White House chief of staff Susie Wiles is concerned about Trump being misled by by his advisers, and has urged colleagues to be “more forthright with the boss” about the political and economic risks of the war. The same yes-men who may be behind his claim that that “nobody” foresaw the scenario of Iran retaliating by seizing the strait — when just about everybody who knows the region did.
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