The surge in gas prices triggered by President Donald Trump’s ill-conceived war on Iran is shaping up to be a political crisis for the president. The changes make an unpopular military conflict tangible in Americans’ everyday lives, and they exacerbate an issue that was already a weakness for Trump (and his predecessor): affordability.
Two things should be particularly worrisome to Trump: There’s no end in sight for the price increases, and things could quickly become far worse.
These numbers should be flashing warning signs for Trump as the midterm elections approach.
A Yahoo/YouGov poll published last week found that gas prices are already doing serious damage to Trump’s popularity. The poll, a survey of about 1,700 U.S. adults conducted March 12-16, found that 66% disapprove of how the president is handling gas prices. Only 27% approve, it found. A similar breakdown emerged over cost of living: 67% disapprove of the president’s approach, while 26% approve.
The poll also documented a plunge in public perception of Trump’s handling of the economy compared with findings a month earlier. Approval dropped from 37% to 32%, and disapproval rose from 57% to 61%.
These numbers should be flashing warning signs for Trump as the midterm elections approach. Consider this finding from Yahoo News’ own writeup of the poll: “Yahoo and YouGov have never measured a lower economic approval rating for Trump — not even at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic during his first term.” And Trump’s approval rating on his approach to cost of living is the “lowest to date” in Yahoo/YouGov polls.
Consumer frustration with rising gas prices likely explains why Trump’s overall job approval rating, which has declined fairly steadily since his second term began in 2025, has hit new lows in polling aggregators, including the ones run by polling analyst Nate Silver and RealClearPolitics.
Growing disapproval is not Trump’s only challenge. There is also the very real affordability problem — you know, the issue Trump has dismissed as a Democratic “hoax,” claimed to have “won” and “solved,” and belittled as a matter of buying fewer dolls and pencils. Trump is increasingly at risk of becoming branded with the stigma of unaffordability the way that President Joe Biden eventually was. But there is a key difference in the two situations: For Biden, inflation was neither entirely his fault nor entirely under his control. But Trump deserves all of the blame for the recent rise in oil prices. And Americans can see this — and feel it in their wallets.
In just the few weeks since Trump launched attacks against Iran, the average price of gas in the U.S. has surged nearly a dollar a gallon. According to The New York Times, “It’s the second-largest four-week increase in at least 30 years — bigger than the one at the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, or the ones associated with the post-recession surge of 2009 and the OPEC production cuts in 1999.” The only time prices spiked faster was in 2005 right after Hurricane Katrina.
Gas prices are advertised on signs all across the country, which means that for Trump, reminders of his error are about as visible as they can get. As of mid-March, the average U.S. driver is spending more than $30 extra per month on gas, according to the Times.
And there are no quick solutions on the horizon. Trump’s pleas to other countries for help securing the Strait of Hormuz — the key route for oil supplies whose closure by Iran is the core reason oil prices are surging — have been rejected. Trump lifted sanctions on some Iranian oil on Friday in a bid to lower global prices, but energy analysts estimate that the measure is unlikely to significantly impact prices while Iran still controls the strait. (The move also gives Iran a financial boost amid a costly war.)
U.S. efforts to secure the strait without assistance are likely to take weeks, at best. Meanwhile, Iran is also placing pressure on the global oil supply by attacking energy infrastructure in Gulf countries. Multiple countries and market analysts have predicted the price of oil could spike dramatically in the coming weeks. If sustained long enough that could, in turn, trigger a recession.
Trump himself has acknowledged that “affordability” is the political watchword of the moment. Yet he has taken no meaningful measures to address it, and his tariff agenda has only made the problem worse. When it comes to oil prices, Trump has no excuses and nowhere to hide — and it’s hard to imagine him blustering his way out of this problem of his own making.
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