Florida Republicans’ multipronged plan to gerrymander their state’s congressional districts and shore up their party’s chance of maintaining control of Congress hit a snag this week. And they may want to proceed with caution, in light of the GOP’s recent losses in public polling and at polling places.

On Tuesday, a federal court blocked a lawsuit filed on behalf of Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., and conservative activist groups concerning the administration of the U.S. census. The lawsuit, backed by White House adviser Stephen Miller’s legal group, essentially alleged that Florida had been cheated out of additional congressional seats after the 2020 census count. As The Associated Press aptly notes, the count was largely planned and executed during Donald Trump’s first presidency.

Nonetheless, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republicans have spent years peddling demonstrably false claims about the census numbers. The conceit behind these claims seems clear: If Florida were entitled to more congressional seats, such a ruling would afford legal justification for redrawing the state’s districts — potentially in ways that dilute the power of nonwhite voters who tend to vote for Democrats in high numbers.

But a three-judge panel of the U.S. District Court in Tampa found that Republicans hadn’t file their lawsuit within the four-year window they were allowed to do so, though the judges gave the plaintiffs 14 days to file an amended suit. We’ll see how they ultimately proceed.

But Florida Republicans are still, at least for now, set to attempt a redistricting gambit — albeit one that’s facing what NBC News described as “political and legal hurdles.” DeSantis recently called for a special session in April for the GOP-led legislature to redraw Florida’s districts, and the governor’s authority to do so is being challenged by Florida voters in a new lawsuit. Florida Democrats also have claimed that the special session is illegal, arguing that it violates the state constitution’s Fair Districts Amendments.

It’s easy to imagine DeSantis and his allies trying to run roughshod over the process and defy these forms of public outcry. But Republicans might actually do well to carefully consider their options, lest they find themselves in something of a “dummymandering” dilemma.

As MS NOW host Chris Hayes explained in November, “dummymandering” is the term for what happens when a gerrymandering scheme backfires, usually because the ruling party creates vulnerable districts for itself that it then loses. It’s a scenario that at least seems possible in a place like Florida, which is already gerrymandered heavily in Republicans’ favor. And the scenario seems even more possible in light of recent electoral wins for Democrats in Florida and beyond, as backlash toward the GOP’s agenda grows — even among some of Trump’s supporters.

After Democrats notched a stunning victory in a Texas state Senate race last weekend, winning a district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024, DeSantis himself offered a warning to Republicans.

“Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election,” he wrote on X.

“That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.”

Notably, this statement came after Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., tagged DeSantis in a post basically warning him about the potential self-own if Florida Republicans misfire with their gerrymandering attempt.

Whether the governor and his party heed this advice is an open question.

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