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FOX Super 6 NFL contest: OutKick handicapper Geoff Clark’s Week 16 picks
December 22 2023, 08:00

Everyone likes free stuff. Well, FOX Sports is running a weekly, FREE-to-enter NFL contest called the "FOX Super 6." All you need to do is answer six questions, predicting team and player performances through the FOX Sports App.

Points are accrued for all six picks. You’re competing against fellow NFL fans and the contest pays the top-six scorers. Here are the official rules and some FAQ’s for the FOX Super 6 contest.

Spoiler alert for the 6th question: I like the Dolphins over the Cowboys this week. There’s a good chance Dallas QB Dak Prescott could be throwing from behind or add a bunch of passing yards in garbage time.

Even if that’s not the case, Prescott was the 2023 NFL MVP favorite before last week’s 31-10 loss at the Buffalo Bills. Dak is still 2nd in QBR and 4th in completion rate. Lastly, Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb has the best WR/CB matchup in Cowboys-Dolphins, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).


PICK: Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

The Colts have gone Over the total in 10 of their 14 games this season, which is the highest rate of Overs in the NFL. That said, the Falcons are 5-9 to the Over and have an underrated defense. Since I like Atlanta over Indy this weekend, I’ll put the Colts at the bottom of this list.

Also, Lions-Vikings will be on the fast-track of Ford Field in Detroit. Both teams have aggressive offenses with a ton of playmakers. However, Minnesota backup QB Nick Mullens is mistake-prone and can leave points on the field for the Vikings.

PICK: 1- Lions, 2- Falcons, 3- Vikings, and 4- Colts

Honestly, I’m just looking to fade the FOX Super 6 Contest here. Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard is by far the least selected running back in this question. If Hubbard comes away with the most total yards here, I’ll gain ground on the field.

That said, Hubbard has gotten at least 22 carries in three consecutive games. Hubbard doesn’t get a lot of targets out of the backfield. But, Panthers QB Bryce Young "dinks and dunks" and Green Bay’s middle linebackers grade poorly in pass coverage, per PFF.

PICK: Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

Not only does this pick correlate with the 1st question but Lamb is having the best season of any WR in this pool. Lamb has five games with at least 10 catches and 100 receiving yards. Miami has a solid secondary but Dallas does a good job lining Lamb in different places on the line of scrimmage to throw opponents off.

If we were drafting these wideouts, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson would go 1st. But, his quarterback puts him behind Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown here. Chicago WR D.J. Moore does a lot of damage in space yet Arizona’s defense is 3rd in yards after the catch allowed.

PICK: 1- Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, 2- Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, 3- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, and 4- Bears WR D.J. Moore

Jaguars pass rusher Josh Allen gets his sacks in bunches. Allen has five multi-sack games this year including two games with 3.0 sacks. His opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are 23rd in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate so Allen has a good matchup in Week 16.

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars pass rusher Josh Allen

Cowboys win, tie or lose by 1 point | Dolphins win by 2 points or more

This is a simple as Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is great in Miami and Prescott struggles as a road underdogs. Tua is 16-2 straight up (SU) and 13-5 against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite with a +6.1 spread differential.

Dak is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as road underdogs with a -6.1 spread differential since Dallas hired head coach Mike McCarthy in 2020. Finally, both teams come up short vs. tough teams but the Cowboys no-show more often. They have three embarrassing losses this season (all on the road). Whereas the Dolphins have two embarrassing losses (both on the road).

PICK: Dolphins win by 2 points or more